Mitchell et al. have a paper in press in Proc R Soc B. on a mathematical model which assesses the impact of long lived zoospores and/or saphrophytic reproduction of Bd on amphibian host dynamics. Following the findings of Di Rosa et al. of a potential resting stage of Bd, we thought that it would be interesting to determine the effect of zoospore longevity on the probability of the host going extinct in a single host system. We paramaterised the model using experimentally- and field-determined measurements; we have found that the occurrence of a long-lived environmental stage can explain how Bd reduces amphibian populations to very low levels, and in some cases can cause local extinction of the host locally. Preprints of this paper are available from Mat Fisher.
